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How big is Inferna?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 64k–104k
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Inferna and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Inferna's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.4M–11.0M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like Inferna

A typical game among these

≈ 6.4M–11.0M copies

≈ $48.7M after Steam's cut

from ~162k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (6 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Open World + Looter Shooter + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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