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How many copies did Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 114k–186k
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–7.2M
best case 12.2M (Hogwarts Legacy)
Games like Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–7.2M copies

≈ $32.8M–$138.2M after Steam's cut

from ~123k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hogwarts Legacy at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies, ≈ $153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 60k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 208k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Open World (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Magic + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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