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How many copies did FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage Collector's Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 491k–798k
$2.7M–$7.3M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.2M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage Collector's Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage Collector's Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 540k–2.2M
best case 5.0M (Need for Speed™ Heat)
Games like FlatOut: Ultimate Carnage Collector's Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 540k–2.2M copies

≈ $3.1M–$9.2M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Need for Speed™ Heat at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 339 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (7 of 8) and Driving (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Open World, priced around $70.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Need for Speed™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 737k–1.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
30k reviews
Mixed
RacingMultiplayer
FlatOut
2007
Est. copies
≈ 423k–688k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$872k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$7.49
7k reviews
Very Positive
Combat RacingRacing
FlatOut 2
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingCombat Racing
Crossout
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
70k reviews
Mostly Positive
Third PersonGun Customization
SimplePlanes
2015
Est. copies
≈ 533k–865k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$12.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
FlightSandbox
Need for Speed™ Heat
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
8.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut $134.0M–$304.9M before Steam's cut
$69.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Need for Speed™ Hot Pursuit Remastered
2020
Est. copies
≈ 376k–610k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.3M after Steam's cut $5.6M–$12.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
RacingDriving
Need for Speed™ Rivals
2020
Est. copies
≈ 265k–431k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingDriving

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