How much revenue did Adios make?

$166k–$447k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Adios sell?

Q: How many copies did Adios sell?

34k to 55k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 34k–55k; $166k–$447k after Steam's cut $302k–$688k before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Adios and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Adios's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 164k–665k

best case 5.5M (Firewatch)

Games like Adios

A typical game among these

≈ 164k–665k copies

≈ $1.6M–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Firewatch at ≈ 4.2M–6.8M copies, ≈ $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 616 to 2k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (4 of 8) and Puzzle (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Walking Simulator + First-Person + Mystery; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Alan Wake's American Nightmare 2012	Est. copies ≈ 688k–1.1M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut	$8.99	11k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionAdventure
Her Story 2015	Est. copies ≈ 509k–827k 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Very Positive	InvestigationTyping
Oxenfree 2016	Est. copies ≈ 504k–820k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	12k reviews Very Positive	Story RichChoices Matter
We Went Back 2020	Est. copies ≈ 119k–193k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayHorror
The Suicide of Rachel Foster 2020	Est. copies ≈ 172k–279k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $849k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut	$17.99	7k reviews Mixed	Walking SimulatorMystery
Observation 2020	Est. copies ≈ 130k–210k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $890k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	5k reviews Mostly Positive	IndieAdventure
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M 14x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
DARQ: Complete Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 121k–196k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $664k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	HorrorDark