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How many copies did Townscaper sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 537k–872k
$884k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
from 22k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Townscaper and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Townscaper's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 44k–46k
best case 806k (Tiny Glade)
Games like Townscaper

A typical game among these

≈ 44k–46k copies

≈ $274k–$338k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Tiny Glade at ≈ 614k–998k copies, ≈ $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 813 reviews in their first month; the range was 302 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (6 of 8) and Building (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2D Platformer + Collectathon, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Casual; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.6x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.