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How many copies did Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–16k
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before Steam's cut
from 408 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–8.1M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family

A typical game among these

≈ 4.6M–8.1M copies

≈ $22.3M–$42.2M after Steam's cut

from ~149k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Female Protagonist (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (4 of 8) and Anime (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Utilities + Software + Design & Illustration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
GRIS
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
96k reviews
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BeautifulAtmospheric
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Life is Strange - Episode 1
2015
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
176k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter

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