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How many copies did Twin Stick Heroes sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 74–121
$305–$826 after Steam's cut $555–$1k before Steam's cut
from 3 reviews (3 user reviews)
Only 3 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Twin Stick Heroes and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Twin Stick Heroes's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–151k
best case 2.1M (HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition)
Games like Twin Stick Heroes

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–151k copies

≈ $60k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition at ≈ 1.6M–2.7M copies, ≈ $9.0M–$24.1M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Twin Stick Shooter (7 of 8) and Action Roguelike (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Top-Down Shooter, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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