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How many copies did Chaos sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$122–$326 after Steam's cut $221–$502 before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chaos and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chaos's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 718k–1.0M
best case 39.5M (Black Myth: Wukong)
Games like Chaos

A typical game among these

≈ 718k–1.0M copies

≈ $6.0M–$14.3M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Black Myth: Wukong at ≈ 30.1M–48.9M copies, ≈ $496.2M–$1334.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 836k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Souls-like (8 of 8) and Action RPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Combat, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + RPG + Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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50x vs typical
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