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How many copies did Galactic Civilizations IV sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 65k–105k
$714k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Galactic Civilizations IV and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Galactic Civilizations IV's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 143k–154k
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like Galactic Civilizations IV

A typical game among these

≈ 143k–154k copies

≈ $1.5M–$2.2M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 623 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Space (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Simulation, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
45x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Dune: Imperium
2024
Est. copies
≈ 109k–178k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$691k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$22.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Board GameStrategy
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command
2022
Est. copies
≈ 110k–179k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$908k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySpace
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.7M–$15.3M after Steam's cut $10.3M–$23.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementDiplomacy
Starpoint Gemini Warlords
2017
Est. copies
≈ 124k–201k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
SpaceRPG
X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 920k–1.5M
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.0M after Steam's cut $23.0M–$52.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
Distant Worlds 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 88k–144k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategySimulation
Creeper World 4
2020
Est. copies
≈ 117k–191k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$807k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Tower DefenseWargame

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