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How many copies did XF5700 Mantis Experimental Fighter sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 124–202
$238–$642 after Steam's cut $433–$988 before Steam's cut
from 5 reviews (5 user reviews)
Only 5 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid XF5700 Mantis Experimental Fighter and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including XF5700 Mantis Experimental Fighter's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–5.7M
best case 9.4M (Kerbal Space Program)
Games like XF5700 Mantis Experimental Fighter

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–5.7M copies

≈ $13.2M–$46.0M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Kerbal Space Program at ≈ 7.2M–11.7M copies, ≈ $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 20k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Space (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Simulation, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
Elite Dangerous
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.5M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.9M–$77.8M after Steam's cut $52.6M–$119.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSpace
Hardspace: Shipbreaker
2022
Est. copies
≈ 557k–905k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.2M before Steam's cut
$34.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSci-fi
X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 920k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.0M after Steam's cut $23.0M–$52.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
Universe Sandbox
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSpace
Empyrion - Galactic Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 854k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Mostly Positive
Star Trek™: Starfleet Academy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6k–11k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$36k–$96k after Steam's cut $65k–$148k before Steam's cut
$19.99
133 reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSpace Sim
Spacetime Dimension
2022
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$34–$91 after Steam's cut $61–$140 before Steam's cut
$0.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
CasualSimulation

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