How many copies did Virtual Cottage sell?

275k to 448k copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Virtual Cottage make?

Virtual Cottage is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Virtual Cottage?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 275k–448k; from 11k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Virtual Cottage and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Virtual Cottage's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 481k–666k

best case 1.9M (PowerWash Simulator)

Games like Virtual Cottage

A typical game among these

≈ 481k–666k copies

≈ $1.9M–$3.5M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PowerWash Simulator at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $10.0M–$27.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 321 to 24k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Cozy (5 of 8) and Sandbox (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + First-Person, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Simulation + First-Person + 3D; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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