How much revenue did Confessions make?

$978–$3k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Confessions sell?

Q: How many copies did Confessions sell?

1k to 2k copies, based on its 48 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1k–2k; $978–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut; from 48 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Confessions and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Confessions's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32k–33k

best case 315k (Aliya: Timelink)

Games like Confessions

A typical game among these

≈ 32k–33k copies

≈ $35k–$427k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Aliya: Timelink at ≈ 240k–390k copies, ≈ $197k–$530k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 322 reviews in their first month; the range was 113 to 725.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Visual Novel (7 of 8) and Dating Sim (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Emotional + Cozy, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Cute + Text-Based; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Kind Words (lo fi chill beats to write to) 2019	Est. copies ≈ 258k–420k 8.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $355k–$953k after Steam's cut $645k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	9k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	EmotionalRelaxing
Aliya: Timelink 2024	Est. copies ≈ 240k–390k 9.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $197k–$530k after Steam's cut $359k–$816k before Steam's cut	$2.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGInteractive Fiction
夜永 Eternal Love 2020	Est. copies ≈ 26k–41k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $35k–$94k after Steam's cut $64k–$145k before Steam's cut	$4.99	1k reviews Very Positive	CasualSimulation
Ignited in Cavern 2024	Est. copies ≈ 35k–56k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $19k–$51k after Steam's cut $34k–$78k before Steam's cut	$1.99	1k reviews Very Positive	RPGVisual Novel
恋爱绮谭不存在的真相 2022	Est. copies ≈ 55k–89k 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $211k–$568k after Steam's cut $384k–$873k before Steam's cut	$13.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Interactive FictionWord Game
Aonatsu Line 2022	Est. copies ≈ 25k–41k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $242k–$652k after Steam's cut $441k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	1k reviews Very Positive	CasualAdventure
Clover Day's Plus 2023	Est. copies ≈ 24k–39k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $232k–$623k after Steam's cut $421k–$958k before Steam's cut	$34.99	971 reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelRomance
目盲/Blind 2022	Est. copies ≈ 23k–37k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $19k–$50k after Steam's cut $34k–$77k before Steam's cut	$2.99	911 reviews Very Positive	Female ProtagonistVisual Novel