How much revenue did The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time make?

$300k–$806k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time sell?

Q: How many copies did The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time sell?

73k to 118k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 73k–118k; $300k–$806k after Steam's cut $545k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–4.1M

best case 105.1M (Garry's Mod)

Games like The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–4.1M copies

≈ $13.2M–$136.5M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Garry's Mod at ≈ 80.0M–130.1M copies, ≈ $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Physics (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Sandbox + Moddable, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M 62x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018	Est. copies ≈ 982k–1.6M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	32k reviews Mixed	Open WorldAction
Dead Rising 4 2017	Est. copies ≈ 290k–472k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$9.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	8k reviews Mixed	ZombiesOpen World
Two Point Hospital 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.8M–$23.6M after Steam's cut $16.0M–$36.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	35k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Management
Public Enemy: Revolution Simulator 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2k–4k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue Free	Free	76 reviews Very Positive	ActionStealth
Dubbing Time 2020	Est. copies ≈ 50–81 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	2 reviews 2 user reviews	Simulation Immersive Sim
The Van of Justice 2021	Est. copies ≈ 595–967 SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue Free	Free	24 reviews Positive	ActionPhysics