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How many copies did Waves of Steel sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 11k–17k
$59k–$158k after Steam's cut $107k–$242k before Steam's cut
from 430 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Waves of Steel and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Waves of Steel's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 772k–3.1M
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like Waves of Steel

A typical game among these

≈ 772k–3.1M copies

≈ $4.9M–$10.2M after Steam's cut

from ~28k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 31k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and War (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

UBOAT
2024
Est. copies
≈ 678k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationWorld War II
Holdfast: Nations At War
2020
Est. copies
≈ 734k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.8M after Steam's cut $7.3M–$16.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
ShooterFPS
From the Depths
2020
Est. copies
≈ 319k–518k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingNaval Combat
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 318k–517k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Mostly Positive
SpaceStrategy
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
World of Warships
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
157k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayNaval Combat
VTOL VR
2017
Est. copies
≈ 752k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FlightVR
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
28x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation

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