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How big is Aircraft Carrier Survival: Tutorial?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 29k–47k
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Aircraft Carrier Survival: Tutorial and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Aircraft Carrier Survival: Tutorial's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–3.6M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like Aircraft Carrier Survival: Tutorial

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–3.6M copies

≈ $38.4M–$46.7M after Steam's cut

from ~86k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (6 of 8) and Management (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Colony Sim + Base-Building, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Colony Sim + Base-Building + Building; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SurvivalWar
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≈ 1.7M–2.7M
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BuildingDinosaurs
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≈ 2.3M–3.7M
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StrategyCity Builder
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2017
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≈ 2.0M–3.2M
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SimulationAutomobile Sim
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≈ 4.1M–6.7M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.