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How many copies did MonkeyPox: The Plague sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 50–81
$28–$73 after Steam's cut $50–$113 before Steam's cut
from 2 reviews (2 user reviews)
Only 2 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MonkeyPox: The Plague and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MonkeyPox: The Plague's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.4M–6.6M
best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)
Games like MonkeyPox: The Plague

A typical game among these

≈ 2.4M–6.6M copies

≈ $23.9M–$60.0M after Steam's cut

from ~79k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Battle Royale (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 48k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Battle Royale (3 of 8) and Fighting (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
Ghostrunner
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
ActionCyberpunk
Block Arena
2020
Est. copies
≈ 992–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
40 reviews
Positive
MultiplayerPvP
Party Animals
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
79k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerFunny
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$66.8M after Steam's cut $45.2M–$102.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeAction
Deadly Kingdom
2019
Est. copies
≈ 58–94
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2 reviews
2 user reviews
ActionIndie
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
176k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
River City Melee : Battle Royal Special
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$25k–$67k after Steam's cut $45k–$102k before Steam's cut
$19.99
131 reviews
Mixed
ActionSports

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