How much revenue did A guard walks into a tavern make?

$24k–$63k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did A guard walks into a tavern sell?

Q: How many copies did A guard walks into a tavern sell?

11k to 17k copies, based on its 432 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 11k–17k; $24k–$63k after Steam's cut $43k–$97k before the cut; from 432 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left A guard walks into a tavern out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A guard walks into a tavern's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 432k–1.1M

best case 4.7M (Crusader Kings III)

Games like A guard walks into a tavern

The middle of these games

≈ 432k–1.1M copies

≈ $2.3M–$8.7M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Crusader Kings III at ≈ 3.6M–5.8M copies, ≈ $48.9M–$131.6M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1k to 22k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Medieval (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Medieval + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Grand Strategy + Historical + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2016 to 2025, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Spellcaster University 2021	Est. copies ≈ 107k–173k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $733k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut	$24.99	4k reviews Very Positive	MagicSimulation
Crusader Kings III 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.8M 10x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $48.9M–$131.6M after Steam's cut $89.0M–$202.5M before the cut	$49.99	144k reviews Very Positive	StrategyMedieval
Volcano Princess 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before the cut	$10.99	49k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Life SimMultiple Endings
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante 2021	Est. copies ≈ 320k–520k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before the cut	$19.99	13k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
Yes, Your Grace 2020	Est. copies ≈ 352k–571k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before the cut	$19.99	14k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterIndie
Foundation 2025	Est. copies ≈ 601k–976k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.8M–$15.5M after Steam's cut $10.5M–$23.9M before the cut	$34.99	24k reviews Very Positive	City Builder Simulation
Reigns 2016	Est. copies ≈ 338k–550k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $278k–$748k after Steam's cut $506k–$1.2M before the cut	$2.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterMedieval
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.2M before the cut	$19.99	45k reviews Very Positive	CraftingSingleplayer