How much revenue did A guard walks into a tavern make?

$24k–$64k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did A guard walks into a tavern sell?

Q: How many copies did A guard walks into a tavern sell?

11k to 17k copies, based on its 434 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 11k–17k; $24k–$64k after Steam's cut $43k–$98k before Steam's cut; from 434 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A guard walks into a tavern and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A guard walks into a tavern's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 436k–1.1M

best case 4.6M (Crusader Kings III)

Games like A guard walks into a tavern

A typical game among these

≈ 436k–1.1M copies

≈ $2.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Crusader Kings III at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 22k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Medieval (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Medieval + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Grand Strategy + Historical + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Crusader Kings III 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 10x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut	$49.99	143k reviews Very Positive	StrategyMedieval
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