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How many copies did Return home sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$735–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Return home and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Return home's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 41k–5.3M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Return home

A typical game among these

≈ 41k–5.3M copies

≈ $82k–$38.8M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 19 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 21k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (5 of 8) and 3D Platformer (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
35x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
83x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
LEGO® Harry Potter: Years 1-4
2010
Est. copies
≈ 603k–980k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.9M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
LEGOAdventure
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
8.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.5M after Steam's cut $30.1M–$68.4M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
LEGOAdventure
Sunset Shapes
2020
Est. copies
≈ 496–806
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$408–$1k after Steam's cut $742–$2k before Steam's cut
$2.99
20 reviews
Positive
3D PlatformerPuzzle-Platformer
SMIB: Mission Cure
2020
Est. copies
≈ 645–1k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$353–$949 after Steam's cut $642–$1k before Steam's cut
$1.99
26 reviews
Positive
Early AccessSpace
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection
2024
Est. copies
≈ 41k–67k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$455k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $828k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
CasualLEGO
Kiki
2024
Est. copies
≈ 43k–70k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$59k–$158k after Steam's cut $107k–$244k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Mostly Negative
Exploration3D Platformer

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