How much revenue did Back to the Dawn make?

$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Back to the Dawn sell?

Q: How many copies did Back to the Dawn sell?

259k to 421k copies, based on its 10k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 259k–421k; $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut; from 10k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Back to the Dawn and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Back to the Dawn's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.9M–4.4M

best case 22.0M (Undertale)

Games like Back to the Dawn

A typical game among these

≈ 1.9M–4.4M copies

≈ $14.1M–$25.0M after Steam's cut

from ~65k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.8M–27.2M copies, ≈ $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 43k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Choices Matter (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Funny + Choices Matter + Multiple Endings; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
OneShot 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	65k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichPixel Graphics
DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.6M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	163k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
To the Moon 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–8.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	87k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichGreat Soundtrack
OMORI 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	89k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Story Rich
Loop Hero 2021	Est. copies ≈ 907k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	37k reviews Very Positive	TacticalRogue-like
Wandering Sword 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	46k reviews Very Positive	RPGMartial Arts
Graveyard Keeper 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$38.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	56k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsCrafting
Undertale 2015	Est. copies ≈ 16.8M–27.2M 5.3x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	343k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich