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How many copies did Ninja Village sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 15k–24k
$36k–$97k after Steam's cut $66k–$150k before Steam's cut
from 590 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ninja Village and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ninja Village's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–1.1M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like Ninja Village

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–1.1M copies

≈ $15k–$11.1M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 217 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Base-Building (4 of 8) and City Builder (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Colony Sim + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

UBOAT
2024
Est. copies
≈ 678k–1.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationWorld War II
Dwarf Fortress
2022
Est. copies
≈ 783k–1.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
Kingdom Of Force
2020
Est. copies
≈ 174–282
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$334–$897 after Steam's cut $608–$1k before Steam's cut
$6.99
7 reviews
7 user reviews
Early AccessStrategy
Scarecropia
2025
Est. copies
≈ 2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut
$9.99
62 reviews
Very Positive
Tactical RPGWargame
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim
2025
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$50k before Steam's cut
$14.99
119 reviews
Mixed
Conqueror's Blade
2019
Est. copies
≈ 859k–1.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
MedievalTactical
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown
2025
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$88k–$236k after Steam's cut $159k–$362k before Steam's cut
$27.99
459 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessRTS

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