How much revenue did Antioch: Scarlet Bay make?

$9k–$24k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Antioch: Scarlet Bay sell?

Q: How many copies did Antioch: Scarlet Bay sell?

7k to 11k copies, based on its 266 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 7k–11k; $9k–$24k after Steam's cut $16k–$37k before Steam's cut; from 266 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Antioch: Scarlet Bay and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Antioch: Scarlet Bay's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 57k–97k

best case 1.4M (Return of the Obra Dinn)

Games like Antioch: Scarlet Bay

A typical game among these

≈ 57k–97k copies

≈ $597k–$662k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Return of the Obra Dinn at ≈ 1.1M–1.7M copies, ≈ $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 494 reviews in their first month; the range was 321 to 2k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Detective (6 of 8) and Noir (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Detective, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure 2021	Est. copies ≈ 74k–120k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $324k–$871k after Steam's cut $589k–$1.3M before Steam's cut	$15.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsDetective
Roman's Christmas / 罗曼圣诞探案集 2020	Est. copies ≈ 37k–60k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $113k–$302k after Steam's cut $205k–$465k before Steam's cut	$10.99	2k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	LGBTQ+Visual Novel
Blacksad: Under the Skin 2019	Est. copies ≈ 201k–327k 4.0x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	7k reviews Very Positive	AdventureDetective
Unavowed 2018	Est. copies ≈ 80k–130k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $329k–$884k after Steam's cut $598k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventurePoint & Click
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M 20x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	35k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DetectiveMystery
Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure 2014	Est. copies ≈ 74k–121k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $408k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $742k–$1.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	1k reviews Very Positive	FMVAdventure
Gamedec - Definitive Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 43k–71k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $359k–$965k after Steam's cut $652k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	SingleplayerStory Rich
Nobody Wants to Die 2024	Est. copies ≈ 186k–303k 4.3x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	8k reviews Very Positive	3DDetective