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How many copies did Paper Kingdom sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$24k before Steam's cut
from 66 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paper Kingdom and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paper Kingdom's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–59k
best case 317k (Kingdoms Reborn)
Games like Paper Kingdom

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–59k copies

≈ $43k–$732k after Steam's cut

from ~590 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Kingdoms Reborn at ≈ 242k–393k copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 267 reviews in their first month; the range was 28 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Game (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Base-Building, priced around $20.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.