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How many copies did WitchHand sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–26k
$52k–$140k after Steam's cut $95k–$215k before Steam's cut
from 636 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid WitchHand and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including WitchHand's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 134k–200k
best case 1.7M (TCG Card Shop Simulator)
Games like WitchHand

A typical game among these

≈ 134k–200k copies

≈ $798k–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: TCG Card Shop Simulator at ≈ 1.3M–2.0M copies, ≈ $6.9M–$18.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 509 to 51k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (6 of 8) and Card Game (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Management, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Economy + Collectathon + Trading Card Game; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.9x vs typical
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Choices MatterLife Sim
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11x vs typical
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RPGCard Game

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