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How many copies did Cardboard Town sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 58k–94k
$317k–$853k after Steam's cut $577k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cardboard Town and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cardboard Town's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 41k–171k
best case 1.2M (Against the Storm)
Games like Cardboard Town

A typical game among these

≈ 41k–171k copies

≈ $289k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Against the Storm at ≈ 934k–1.5M copies, ≈ $7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 741 reviews in their first month; the range was 209 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share City Builder (6 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $30.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.9x vs typical
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