How much revenue did Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I make?

$678k–$1.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I sell?

Q: How many copies did Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I sell?

247k to 401k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 247k–401k; $678k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.0M–22.1M

best case 129.3M (Terraria)

Games like Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I

A typical game among these

≈ 7.0M–22.1M copies

≈ $59.2M–$88.1M after Steam's cut

from ~222k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Metroidvania (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Metroidvania (3 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cuphead 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	222k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DifficultCartoon
Starbound 2016	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.1M–$56.9M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	123k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Geometry Dash 2014	Est. copies ≈ 36.2M–58.9M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut	$4.99	647k reviews Very Positive	DifficultMusic
Brawlhalla 2017	Est. copies ≈ 14.2M–23.1M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	413k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulMetroidvania
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M 7.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Dead Cells 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	184k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventureAction Roguelike
Hollow Knight 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.5M–31.6M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	566k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like