How much revenue did Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone make?

$209k–$562k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone sell?

Q: How many copies did Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone sell?

19k to 31k copies, based on its 766 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 19k–31k; $209k–$562k after Steam's cut $380k–$864k before Steam's cut; from 766 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 769k–1.3M

best case 4.6M (S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl)

Games like Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone

A typical game among these

≈ 769k–1.3M copies

≈ $10.9M–$11.3M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 88k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (5 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Multiplayer + MMORPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ 2009	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	34k reviews Very Positive	RPGSci-fi
Mass Effect (2007) 2008	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.6M–$23.2M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	17k reviews Very Positive	RPGSci-fi
ELEX 2017	Est. copies ≈ 675k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.1M–$23.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	20k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGOpen World
STAR WARS™: The Old Republic™ 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M 3.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	76k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Wasteland 3 2020	Est. copies ≈ 557k–904k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	22k reviews Very Positive	CRPGCharacter Customization
The Outer Worlds 2020	Est. copies ≈ 702k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	28k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction RPG
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 6.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut $105.1M–$239.2M before Steam's cut	$59.99	141k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldFPS
Terminator: Resistance 2019	Est. copies ≈ 541k–880k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	19k reviews Very Positive	FPSPost-apocalyptic