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How many copies did Mass Effect (2007) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
$8.6M–$23.2M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.7M before Steam's cut
from 17k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mass Effect (2007) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mass Effect (2007)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–2.8M
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like Mass Effect (2007)

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–2.8M copies

≈ $30.0M–$46.8M after Steam's cut

from ~61k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 93k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (6 of 8) and Space (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Sci-fi, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Space + Grand Strategy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Prey
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.5M–$41.8M after Steam's cut $28.2M–$64.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
55k reviews
Very Positive
Sci-fiImmersive Sim
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$18.6M–$50.0M after Steam's cut $33.8M–$77.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerStory Rich
Starfield
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
175k reviews
Mixed
SpaceSingleplayer
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$41.3M–$111.2M after Steam's cut $75.2M–$171.0M before Steam's cut
$69.99
87k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAdventure
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.3M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
34k reviews
Very Positive
RPGSci-fi

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