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How many copies did Better Off Dead - Life as a Prison Guard sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 645–1k
$175–$472 after Steam's cut $319–$726 before Steam's cut
from 26 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Better Off Dead - Life as a Prison Guard and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Better Off Dead - Life as a Prison Guard's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 513–1.2M
best case 4.6M (Fallout 76)
Games like Better Off Dead - Life as a Prison Guard

A typical game among these

≈ 513–1.2M copies

≈ $2k–$11.2M after Steam's cut

from ~46 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fallout 76 at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $38.4M–$103.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 43 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 14k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (4 of 8) and Gore (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

POSTAL 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.2M
3006x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
138k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ViolentDark Humor
Fallout 76
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
3062x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.3M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
141k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldMultiplayer
Mouthwashing
2024
Est. copies
≈ 0
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$0 after Steam's cut $0 before Steam's cut
$12.99
0 reviews
No user reviews
Christmas Massacre
2021
Est. copies
≈ 28k–45k
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$61k–$163k after Steam's cut $110k–$251k before Steam's cut
$7.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
ViolentAction
Folletti
2023
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$204–$550 after Steam's cut $370–$846 before Steam's cut
$9.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
Dark FantasyRPG
The Zombie Neighborhood
2023
Est. copies
≈ 794–1k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
$13.99
32 reviews
Mixed
ZombiesHorror
Blackout Memphis
2024
Est. copies
≈ 496–806
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$6k before Steam's cut
$9.99
20 reviews
Positive
GoreTop-Down Shooter
Taken Soul | Đoạt Mệnh
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$17k before Steam's cut
$9.99
60 reviews
Mixed
Action-AdventureThird-Person Shooter

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