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How big is The Lord of the Rings Online™?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
from 23k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Lord of the Rings Online™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Lord of the Rings Online™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.6M–6.6M
best case 9.7M (New World: Aeternum)
Games like The Lord of the Rings Online™

A typical game among these

≈ 3.6M–6.6M copies

≈ $32.6M–$52.6M after Steam's cut

from ~93k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: New World: Aeternum at ≈ 7.4M–12.0M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (8 of 8) and Open World (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + MMORPG.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

RuneScape ®
2020
Est. copies
≈ 677k–1.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
27k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMMORPG
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
86k reviews
Very Positive
MMORPGRPG
New World: Aeternum
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
297k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
Trove
2015
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
93k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Albion Online
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMMORPG
The Elder Scrolls® Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.2M after Steam's cut $55.6M–$126.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
162k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMMORPG
Neverwinter
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
40k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMMORPG
Black Desert
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
MMORPGMassively Multiplayer

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