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How many copies did THE 4 SINS sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 100k–163k
$276k–$742k after Steam's cut $502k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid THE 4 SINS and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including THE 4 SINS's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 621k–1.2M
best case 6.0M (XCOM® 2)
Games like THE 4 SINS

A typical game among these

≈ 621k–1.2M copies

≈ $4.5M–$7.7M after Steam's cut

from ~23k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM® 2 at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 579 to 31k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (5 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Isometric + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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SimulationSandbox
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Est. copies
≈ 735k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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PuzzleRelaxing
Baba Is You
2019
Est. copies
≈ 712k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
25k reviews
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PuzzleIndie
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
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IsometricTurn-Based Combat
The Talos Principle 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 333k–541k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
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A Little to the Left
2022
Est. copies
≈ 478k–777k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleRelaxing
Murders on the Yangtze River
2024
Est. copies
≈ 528k–858k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveAdventure

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