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How many copies did Find The Murderer 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 124–202
$102–$275 after Steam's cut $185–$423 before Steam's cut
from 5 reviews (5 user reviews)
Only 5 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Find The Murderer 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Find The Murderer 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 446k–6.0M
best case 5.8M (Stray)
Games like Find The Murderer 3

A typical game among these

≈ 446k–6.0M copies

≈ $4.8M–$75.3M after Steam's cut

from ~61k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stray at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cats + Cyberpunk, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure
Fate Seeker II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 342k–556k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$22.60
14k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMartial Arts
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.6M after Steam's cut $53.8M–$122.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
89k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
The Talos Principle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePhilosophical
AER Memories of Old
2017
Est. copies
≈ 266k–433k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureExploration
The Talos Principle 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 333k–541k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
176k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like

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