How much revenue did I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine make?

$110k–$295k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine sell?

Q: How many copies did I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine sell?

16k to 26k copies, based on its 644 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 16k–26k; $110k–$295k after Steam's cut $200k–$454k before Steam's cut; from 644 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 915k–1.3M

best case 1.3M (Car Mechanic Simulator 2021)

Games like I Expect You To Die 3: Cog in the Machine

A typical game among these

≈ 915k–1.3M copies

≈ $5.2M–$11.0M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Sandbox (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 at ≈ 963k–1.6M copies, ≈ $6.6M–$17.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 724 to 13k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sandbox (4 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Automobile Sim, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Mountain 2014	Est. copies ≈ 912k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $248k–$668k after Steam's cut $452k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$0.99	16k reviews Very Positive	SimulationIndie
The Lab 2016	Est. copies ≈ 278k–452k too small to compare SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	7k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayVR
Surgeon Simulator 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	17k reviews Very Positive	SimulationFunny
Escape Simulator 2021	Est. copies ≈ 482k–783k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	19k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle Co-op
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes 2015	Est. copies ≈ 838k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.5M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	17k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Co-opLocal Multiplayer
Hardspace: Shipbreaker 2022	Est. copies ≈ 557k–905k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.2M before Steam's cut	$34.99	22k reviews Very Positive	SpaceSci-fi
Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 2021	Est. copies ≈ 963k–1.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.6M–$17.8M after Steam's cut $12.0M–$27.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	39k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationAutomobile Sim
BONEWORKS 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	36k reviews Very Positive	VRPhysics