How much revenue did Hexguardian make?

$58k–$155k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Hexguardian sell?

Q: How many copies did Hexguardian sell?

17k to 28k copies, based on its 705 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 17k–28k; $58k–$155k after Steam's cut $105k–$238k before Steam's cut; from 705 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hexguardian and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hexguardian's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 161k–196k

best case 572k (Bad North: Jotunn Edition)

Games like Hexguardian

A typical game among these

≈ 161k–196k copies

≈ $393k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Bad North: Jotunn Edition at ≈ 436k–709k copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 3k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Rogue-like (7 of 8) and Tower Defense (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Tower Defense, priced around $13. The breakout hits carry Survival + Exploration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Rogue Tower 2022	Est. copies ≈ 147k–239k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $607k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	6k reviews Very Positive	Tower DefenseStrategy
Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018	Est. copies ≈ 436k–709k 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	14k reviews Very Positive	WargameVikings
Kingdom: New Lands 2016	Est. copies ≈ 516k–839k 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut	$14.99	12k reviews Very Positive	Tower Defense Survival
Cluckmech Oasis 2024	Est. copies ≈ 90k–147k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $248k–$666k after Steam's cut $450k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRogue-like
Wall World 2023	Est. copies ≈ 316k–513k 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $607k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$6.99	13k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-liteMining
Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ 2014	Est. copies ≈ 787k–1.3M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut	$11.99	14k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-likeStrategy
Necrosmith 2022	Est. copies ≈ 133k–216k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $109k–$294k after Steam's cut $199k–$453k before Steam's cut	$2.99	5k reviews Very Positive	ZombiesAction Roguelike
Ship of Fools 2022	Est. copies ≈ 156k–253k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $943k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut	$21.99	6k reviews Very Positive	Co-op Rogue-lite