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How many copies did MASSIVE CHALICE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 93k–152k
$513k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $932k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MASSIVE CHALICE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MASSIVE CHALICE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–1.5M
best case 6.0M (XCOM® 2)
Games like MASSIVE CHALICE

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–1.5M copies

≈ $14.4M–$20.5M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM® 2 at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Strategy (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Auto Battler + Casual + Chess; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
RISK: Global Domination
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
42k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Wandering Sword
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMartial Arts
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Into the Breach
2018
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Dota Underlords
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
91k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
IsometricTurn-Based Combat
BATTLETECH
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut $20.2M–$46.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
MechsStrategy

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