How much revenue did POLARIS™ make?

$11k–$29k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did POLARIS™ sell?

Q: How many copies did POLARIS™ sell?

2k to 3k copies, based on its 79 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k–3k; $11k–$29k after Steam's cut $20k–$45k before Steam's cut; from 79 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid POLARIS™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including POLARIS™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 295k–4.6M

best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)

Games like POLARIS™

A typical game among these

≈ 295k–4.6M copies

≈ $2.6M–$122.3M after Steam's cut

from ~34k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 251k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Extraction Shooter (7 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Shooter, priced around $40.
When they shipped: 4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Eldegarde 2026	Est. copies ≈ 145k–236k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	6k reviews Mixed	MultiplayerExtraction Shooter
Deceive Inc. 2023	Est. copies ≈ 195k–318k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Social DeductionHeist
The Cycle: Frontier 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	45k reviews Mixed	Extraction ShooterSurvival
The Day Before 2023	Est. copies ≈ 575k–934k SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	23k reviews Overwhelmingly Negative	MultiplayerZombies
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024	Est. copies ≈ 28.9M–46.9M 34x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.2M reviews Mostly Positive	Online Co-OpPvE
Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019	Est. copies ≈ 8.0M–13.1M 8.2x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	279k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Incursion Red River 2024	Est. copies ≈ 235k–382k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut	$21.99	9k reviews Mostly Positive	Extraction ShooterRealistic
Gray Zone Warfare 2024	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.6M–$58.1M after Steam's cut $39.3M–$89.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	79k reviews Mostly Positive	Early AccessOnline Co-Op