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How many copies did Ninja sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 50–81
$151–$405 after Steam's cut $275–$623 before Steam's cut
from 2 reviews (2 user reviews)
Only 2 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ninja and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ninja's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 543–854k
best case 6.0M (SPORE™)
Games like Ninja

A typical game among these

≈ 543–854k copies

≈ $2k–$6.6M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: SPORE™ at ≈ 4.6M–7.5M copies, ≈ $25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 8k reviews in their first month.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Colony Sim (8 of 8) and God Game (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with God Game + Open World, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SPORE™
2008
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.5M
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
God GameOpen World
Rise to Ruins
2019
Est. copies
≈ 224k–363k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$922k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Stonehearth
2018
Est. copies
≈ 398k–646k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Mostly Positive
WorldBox - God Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
6.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$20.9M after Steam's cut $14.1M–$32.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
57k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGod Game
The Universim
2024
Est. copies
≈ 265k–430k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
11k reviews
Mostly Positive
City BuilderGod Game
Alpha Lyrae Discovery
2019
Est. copies
≈ 518–842
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$10.99
18 reviews
Positive
ISLANDS MIGHT FLY
2024
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$103–$273 after Steam's cut $187–$420 before Steam's cut
$14.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
Early AccessManagement
Project Martians
2021
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$218–$585 after Steam's cut $396–$900 before Steam's cut
$7.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
Colony SimMars

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