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How many copies did Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 192k–312k
$528k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $960k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 743k–1.4M
best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)
Games like Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae

A typical game among these

≈ 743k–1.4M copies

≈ $9.6M–$12.1M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 33k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (7 of 8) and Sexual Content (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + PvP + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
9.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
Tales of Berseria™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 651k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.1M after Steam's cut $16.3M–$37.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeJRPG
Action Taimanin
2020
Est. copies
≈ 482k–783k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
19k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Bayonetta
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
Sword and Fairy 7
2021
Est. copies
≈ 477k–775k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.6M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
19k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGSingleplayer
Bright Memory: Infinite
2021
Est. copies
≈ 990k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
嗜血印 Bloody Spell
2022
Est. copies
≈ 976k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$18.0M after Steam's cut $12.2M–$27.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
NuditySexual Content

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