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How many copies did Dust Courier sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 174–282
$143–$384 after Steam's cut $260–$590 before Steam's cut
from 7 reviews (7 user reviews)
Only 7 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dust Courier and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dust Courier's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 453k–3.0M
best case 5.5M (Frostpunk)
Games like Dust Courier

A typical game among these

≈ 453k–3.0M copies

≈ $1.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Dark Humor (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Frostpunk at ≈ 4.2M–6.8M copies, ≈ $34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Dark Humor (3 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Survival, priced around $30.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Graveyard Keeper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$38.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsCrafting
Fallout Shelter
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
83k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBase-Building
60 Seconds! Reatomized
2019
Est. copies
≈ 566k–919k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
2DChoose Your Own Adventure
60 Seconds!
2015
Est. copies
≈ 571k–927k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$8.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based TacticsExploration
60 Parsecs!
2018
Est. copies
≈ 125k–203k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$343k–$923k after Steam's cut $624k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyText-Based
Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
7.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
138k reviews
Very Positive
First Day
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
136 reviews
Mixed
IndieSurvival
Despotism 3k
2018
Est. copies
≈ 117k–190k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$256k–$689k after Steam's cut $466k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$7.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyIndie

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