How many copies did First Day sell?

4k to 6k copies, based on its 136 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did First Day make?

First Day is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is First Day?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 4k–6k; from 136 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid First Day and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including First Day's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–20k

best case 41k (Dust to the End)

Games like First Day

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–20k copies

≈ $16k–$69k after Steam's cut

from ~268 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Dust to the End at ≈ 31k–51k copies, ≈ $104k–$279k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 80 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 712.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Post-apocalyptic (5 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Hand-drawn, priced around $12.
When they shipped: Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Z Dawn 2019	Est. copies ≈ 8k–14k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $23k–$62k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut	$9.99	292 reviews Mostly Positive	StrategyRPG
Interregnum: False Prophet 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut	$24.99	58 reviews Mixed	Early AccessStrategy
Legacy of Sin: The Father Sacrifice 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $4k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$18k before Steam's cut	$7.99	80 reviews Mixed	StrategySurvival
Lost Scavenger 2022	Est. copies ≈ 6k–10k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $25k–$67k after Steam's cut $45k–$103k before Steam's cut	$14.99	244 reviews Mixed	Early AccessSurvival
Shardpunk 2023	Est. copies ≈ 19k–32k 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $75k–$201k after Steam's cut $136k–$309k before Steam's cut	$13.99	784 reviews Very Positive	Tactical RPGSurvival
Nayati River 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut	$4.99	86 reviews Mixed	AdventureZombies
Dust to the End 2021	Est. copies ≈ 31k–51k 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $104k–$279k after Steam's cut $188k–$429k before Steam's cut	$11.99	1k reviews Mostly Positive	SimulationHand-drawn
Caravaneer 2 2020	Est. copies ≈ 14k–22k 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$93k before Steam's cut	$5.99	548 reviews Very Positive	RPGTrading