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How many copies did Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 372k–604k
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–6.8M
best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)
Games like Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–6.8M copies

≈ $16.2M–$80.0M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 42 to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (8 of 8) and Story Rich (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Sci-fi, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2004 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$27.7M–$74.3M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.4M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
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≈ 7.6M–12.3M
6.1x vs typical
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Very Positive
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Est. copies
≈ 217k–353k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
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≈ 693k–1.1M
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Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
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Est. revenue
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Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
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Free
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Overwhelmingly Positive
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