How much revenue did One Chance make?

$3k–$9k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did One Chance sell?

Q: How many copies did One Chance sell?

620 to 1k copies, based on its 25 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 620–1k; $3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut; from 25 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid One Chance and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including One Chance's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–5k

best case 560k (Overlord™)

Games like One Chance

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–5k copies

≈ $5k–$24k after Steam's cut

from ~135 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Overlord™ at ≈ 427k–693k copies, ≈ $585k–$1.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 59 reviews in their first month; the range was 11 to 97.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Action-Adventure (5 of 8) and RTS (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Historical + Sandbox, priced around $6. The breakout hits carry Historical + Indie + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Han Xiongnu Wars 2017	Est. copies ≈ 142k–230k 30x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $272k–$732k after Steam's cut $495k–$1.1M before Steam's cut	$6.99	4k reviews Mixed	ActionStrategy
Overlord™ 2007	Est. copies ≈ 427k–693k 50x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $585k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut	$4.99	7k reviews Very Positive	Villain ProtagonistHack and Slash
Zombie Party 丧尸派对 2024	Est. copies ≈ 4k–6k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut	$5.99	154 reviews Mostly Positive	Pixel GraphicsZombies
Conquest 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $624–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut	$1.99	46 reviews Mixed	RPGVR
Penkura 2018	Est. copies ≈ 6k–10k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $24k–$64k after Steam's cut $43k–$98k before Steam's cut	$13.99	202 reviews Very Positive	Early AccessOpen World Survival Craft
Sunstone War 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut	$4.99	53 reviews Very Positive	AdventureTower Defense
XiuzhenWorld2 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3k–6k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $12k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before Steam's cut	$12.99	141 reviews Mixed	RPGIdler
Alchemist Adventure 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$55k before Steam's cut	$14.99	129 reviews Mostly Positive	Action-AdventureMedieval