How much revenue did fault - milestone one make?

$748k–$2.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did fault - milestone one sell?

Q: How many copies did fault - milestone one sell?

181k to 295k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 181k–295k; $748k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid fault - milestone one and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including fault - milestone one's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 957k–1.8M

best case 3.8M (Mirror 2: Project X)

Games like fault - milestone one

A typical game among these

≈ 957k–1.8M copies

≈ $4.7M–$14.3M after Steam's cut

from ~23k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Mirror 2: Project X at ≈ 2.9M–4.7M copies, ≈ $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 23k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and Visual Novel (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Match 3 + Anime, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry 3D + Match 3 + Drama; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	39k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CyberpunkVisual Novel
Mirror 2: Project X 2022	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M 4.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.5M before Steam's cut	$1.99	116k reviews Mostly Negative	3DMatch 3
NEKOPARA Vol. 0 2015	Est. copies ≈ 869k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $715k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	18k reviews Very Positive	AnimeNudity
Tales of Berseria™ 2017	Est. copies ≈ 651k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.0M–$24.1M after Steam's cut $16.3M–$37.0M before Steam's cut	$49.99	19k reviews Very Positive	AnimeJRPG
Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk 2021	Est. copies ≈ 556k–903k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut	$8.99	22k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
Volcano Princess 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$10.99	49k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Life SimMultiple Endings
NEKOPARA Vol. 1 2014	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	27k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HentaiAnime
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017	Est. copies ≈ 806k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	23k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelDetective