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How many copies did Train Sim World® 5 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 130k–212k
$1.4M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Train Sim World® 5 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Train Sim World® 5's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 124k–292k
best case 372k (Derail Valley)
Games like Train Sim World® 5

A typical game among these

≈ 124k–292k copies

≈ $1.4M–$1.8M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Derail Valley at ≈ 283k–460k copies, ≈ $3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 826 reviews in their first month; the range was 618 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Trains (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trains + Simulation, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tracks - The Train Set Game
2019
Est. copies
≈ 45k–73k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$245k–$660k after Steam's cut $446k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSandbox
Derail Valley
2019
Est. copies
≈ 283k–460k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessTrains
Train Sim World® 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 205k–333k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationTrains
Train Sim World® 2020
2017
Est. copies
≈ 240k–391k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$859k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
7k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationTrains
Train Station Renovation
2020
Est. copies
≈ 69k–112k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$358k–$963k after Steam's cut $652k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$18.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationCasual
Railroader
2023
Est. copies
≈ 89k–144k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$732k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessSimulation
Train Sim World® 3
2022
Est. copies
≈ 115k–187k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$789k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationTrains
Train Sim World® 4
2023
Est. copies
≈ 100k–162k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$824k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
TrainsSimulation

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