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How many copies did Train Sim World® 2020 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 240k–391k
$859k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Train Sim World® 2020 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Train Sim World® 2020's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 181k–372k
best case 1.2M (Transport Fever 2)
Games like Train Sim World® 2020

A typical game among these

≈ 181k–372k copies

≈ $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Transport Fever 2 at ≈ 950k–1.5M copies, ≈ $10.4M–$28.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 669 to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Trains (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Strategy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Derail Valley
2019
Est. copies
≈ 283k–460k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessTrains
Transport Fever 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 950k–1.5M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.1M after Steam's cut $19.0M–$43.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationStrategy
SimRail - The Railway Simulator
2024
Est. copies
≈ 138k–224k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut
$34.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
TrainsSimulation
Transport Fever
2016
Est. copies
≈ 452k–734k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
FlightCity Builder
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic
2024
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Train Sim World® 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 205k–333k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationTrains
Train Sim World® 3
2022
Est. copies
≈ 115k–187k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$789k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationTrains
Train Simulator Classic
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$31.9M after Steam's cut $21.6M–$49.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationTrains

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