How much revenue did Red Thread make?

$272–$732 after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Red Thread sell?

Q: How many copies did Red Thread sell?

99 to 161 copies, based on its 4 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 99–161; $272–$732 after Steam's cut $495–$1k before Steam's cut; from 4 reviews (4 user reviews); Only 4 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Red Thread and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Red Thread's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–3k

best case 75k (The Red Lantern)

Games like Red Thread

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–3k copies

≈ $6k–$8k after Steam's cut

from ~60 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: The Red Lantern at ≈ 57k–93k copies, ≈ $395k–$1.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 33 reviews in their first month; the range was 17 to 529.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Choose Your Own Adventure (8 of 8) and Rogue-lite (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $19.
When they shipped: Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Red Lantern 2021	Est. copies ≈ 57k–93k 39x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $395k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $718k–$1.6M before Steam's cut	$24.99	2k reviews Very Positive	ExplorationDog
Fateweaver: Smash or Pass 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut	$2.99	81 reviews Very Positive	SimulationChoices Matter
Fabled Lands 2022	Est. copies ≈ 13k–22k 9.1x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $70k–$189k after Steam's cut $128k–$290k before Steam's cut	$18.99	542 reviews Very Positive	CRPGOpen World
General Horse and the Package of Doom 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut	$9.99	78 reviews Very Positive	ComedyChoose Your Own Adventure
Apollyon: River of Life 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut	$14.99	41 reviews Positive	Choose Your Own AdventureCRPG
Lost:Antinomy 2024	Est. copies ≈ 27k–43k 18x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $22k–$59k after Steam's cut $40k–$91k before Steam's cut	$2.99	1k reviews Very Positive	AdventureSimulation
Astronaut: The Best 2023	Est. copies ≈ 843–1k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut	$14.99	34 reviews Positive	Interactive FictionStory Rich
Heading Out 2024	Est. copies ≈ 18k–29k 12x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $98k–$262k after Steam's cut $177k–$404k before Steam's cut	$19.99	716 reviews Mostly Positive	Visual NovelStylized