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How many copies did Cherophobia sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$999–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 49 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cherophobia and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cherophobia's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 365k–1.2M
best case 1.1M (Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk)
Games like Cherophobia

A typical game among these

≈ 365k–1.2M copies

≈ $889k–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk at ≈ 853k–1.4M copies, ≈ $349k–$939k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 163 to 10k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Psychological Horror (5 of 8) and Short (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Psychological Horror, priced around $1.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Visage
2020
Est. copies
≈ 274k–445k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
Iron Lung
2022
Est. copies
≈ 280k–455k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$615k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$7.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
The Beginner's Guide
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
Pony Island
2016
Est. copies
≈ 755k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleIndie
Plug & Play
2015
Est. copies
≈ 241k–392k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$265k–$712k after Steam's cut $482k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$3.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
IndieShort
The Plan
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
24k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayIndie
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk
2020
Est. copies
≈ 853k–1.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$349k–$939k after Steam's cut $635k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$1.49
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Townscaper
2021
Est. copies
≈ 537k–872k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$884k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$5.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExperimentalBuilding

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.