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How many copies did Abnormal1999:Sector 49 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
from 133 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Abnormal1999:Sector 49 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Abnormal1999:Sector 49's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 423k–748k
best case 437k (The Talos Principle 2)
Games like Abnormal1999:Sector 49

A typical game among these

≈ 423k–748k copies

≈ $3.9M–$5.8M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Talos Principle 2 at ≈ 333k–541k copies, ≈ $2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 34 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 5k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Walking Simulator (8 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Story Rich, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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GoreHorror
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Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs
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ExplorationImmersive Sim
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter
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MysteryAtmospheric
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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Music Man
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Positive
AdventureAction

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