How much revenue did The Magic Circle make?

$403k–$1.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Magic Circle sell?

Q: How many copies did The Magic Circle sell?

73k to 119k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 73k–119k; $403k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $733k–$1.7M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Magic Circle and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Magic Circle's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 741k–1.3M

best case 6.7M (Papers, Please)

Games like The Magic Circle

A typical game among these

≈ 741k–1.3M copies

≈ $3.9M–$14.3M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Papers, Please at ≈ 5.1M–8.3M copies, ≈ $14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 724 to 5k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Political + Simulation, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Political + Dystopian + Multiple Endings; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Witness 2016	Est. copies ≈ 900k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$40.9M before Steam's cut	$39.99	22k reviews Very Positive	PuzzleExploration
The Talos Principle 2014	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	33k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePhilosophical
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension 2020	Est. copies ≈ 648k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$12.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	IndieAdventure
Unheard - Voices of Crime 2019	Est. copies ≈ 981k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut	$6.99	34k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DetectivePuzzle
Papers, Please 2013	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$57.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	81k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	IndiePolitical
Unpacking 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	41k reviews Very Positive	RelaxingCute
Escape Simulator 2021	Est. copies ≈ 482k–783k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	19k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle Co-op
Cyber Manhunt 2021	Est. copies ≈ 390k–634k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	SimulationRPG