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How many copies did Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
$9.6M–$25.9M after Steam's cut $17.5M–$39.8M before Steam's cut
from 28k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.7M–18.1M
best case 20.7M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)
Games like Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 5.7M–18.1M copies

≈ $87.3M–$299.1M after Steam's cut

from ~138k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies, ≈ $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Historical (8 of 8) and Grand Strategy (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
88k reviews
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StrategyHistorical
Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
143k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMedieval
Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.7M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut $199.9M–$454.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
211k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
Hearts of Iron IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.1M–24.6M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
363k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWorld War II
Crusader Kings II
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
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74k reviews
Very Positive
Grand StrategyStrategy
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.7M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
380k reviews
Very Positive
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Total War: THREE KINGDOMS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.7M–$79.9M after Steam's cut $54.0M–$123.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
94k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Europa Universalis IV
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.5M–13.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$116.6M–$313.5M after Steam's cut $212.0M–$482.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
134k reviews
Very Positive
Grand StrategyStrategy

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