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How many copies did Medieval: Total War™ - Collection sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 120k–195k
$330k–$888k after Steam's cut $601k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Medieval: Total War™ - Collection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Medieval: Total War™ - Collection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 485k–2.6M
best case 2.2M (Total War: SHOGUN 2)
Games like Medieval: Total War™ - Collection

A typical game among these

≈ 485k–2.6M copies

≈ $4.6M–$23.4M after Steam's cut

from ~27k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Total War: SHOGUN 2 at ≈ 1.7M–2.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (8 of 8) and Grand Strategy (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Historical + Turn-Based Strategy.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Total War: SHOGUN 2
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Inkulinati
2024
Est. copies
≈ 31k–50k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$210k–$565k after Steam's cut $382k–$869k before Steam's cut
$24.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
MedievalTurn-Based Strategy
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition
2006
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.1M after Steam's cut $23.1M–$52.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyMedieval
Total War: SHOGUN 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$35.4M–$95.2M after Steam's cut $64.4M–$146.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Age of Conquest IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 117k–191k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy
Rome: Total War™ - Collection
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
17k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: ATTILA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.3M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA
2018
Est. copies
≈ 453k–737k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyHistorical

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